Donald Trump was tried by the Senate last week for impeachment on the charge of inciting the deadly insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th. He was acquitted: though a majority of Senators (57 to be precise) voted against Trump, this falls short of the two-thirds majority (67 votes) that would be required to convict.
The impeachment was historic for a number of reasons. It was the first time that a president was tried for impeachment twice. Additionally, though members of the president’s party typically don’t vote to convict, seven Republicans voted to convict Trump.
What explains why some Republicans voted to convict? And what explains why most Republicans voted to acquit in the face of what many people – especially people in the Democratic party — believe was overwhelming evidence?
I don’t have a definite answer for either question. Aren’t you glad you stopped by?
But, in general, when trying to explain why politicians are doing something we don’t like, it’s helpful to remember that politicians have many people they are trying to please in order to keep their jobs. (In the jargon of political science we say they have multiple principals). Individual senators have their own beliefs and preferences. But the US is a democracy, which means that senators have to keep their voters happy, or at least happy enough to be reelected in the next cycle. It’s hard to represent your constituents if they vote you out of Congress.
Senators also have to keep the other members of their party happy. If they don’t, the party might not nominate or endorse them in the next election, or promote them to leadership positions within the party. And senators need to consider something called log-rolling, which is a back-scratching type of deal where someone supports your legislative priorities in exchange for your support of theirs. Senators who don’t cooperate with other legislators won’t be able to call on their colleagues to back legislation that would benefits their constituents.
In short, a legislative vote is rarely as simple as a senator listening to debate and making a choice. Regardless of how any senator voted, their vote almost certainly reflects cross-pressure from a number of sources. And in most cases, that pressure is a good thing: think about your reaction if you voted in a senator from your party and then she just did whatever she wanted, irrespective of what constituents or the party thought was best.
I would guess most senators’ votes on impeachment reflect how their constituents and party wanted them to vote.
So what did senators really think about the impeachment? We can get some insight from the Republicans who broke with their party. Almost all of them were either retiring or won’t be up for reelection until 2026. If these senators need to worry about reelection at all, they can safely assume both voters and the party will have forgotten about their impeachment vote by 2026. This pattern suggests that much of the pressure to acquit Trump was coming from voters and the rest of the party, and when freed from these pressures, they voted their personal preference to convict.
On the other hand, these who voted to acquit are not the only Republican senators who aren’t up for reelection. Many other senators, including one senator who is retiring, voted to acquit. These senators weren’t necessarily pressured into their votes: they heard the evidence and decided acquittal was the right choice.
Don’t like it? Unfortunately, having politicians who disagree with us is an inherent part of democracy: the only way to ensure that everyone does things our way is to have an autocracy (and be the autocrat). If senators from other states cast votes you don’t agree with, there’s not a whole lot you can do: they don’t represent you and your poor opinion of them doesn’t affect their ability to do their job. However, if your own senator voted differently than you would prefer, or your senator shares a party with a senator whose vote you dislike, devote some time or money to political action. You can become part of the pressure that might make a vote to come out differently.
Wait! We can explain! 